In a 1965 magazine article, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computing capacity would double every two years. He wrote, “The first microprocessor only had 22 hundred transistors. We are looking at something a million times that complex in the next generations—a billion transistors. What that gives us in the way of flexibility to design products is phenomenal.’’ Now, flash forward to today where advances in e-Learning capabilities continue at breakneck speed, we can see how the principle behind Moore’s Law has triggered a technology revolution.

With so much progress experienced in the world of e-Learning during the last decade, we asked two industry veterans—Thomson NETg President Clint Everton and industry consultant Tom Crawford, formerly with Root Learning and The Masie Center—to gaze into their crystal ball and let us know what they see regarding the future of e-Learning.

CE: The constant remains the importance of great content. However, great content remains very hard and expensive to do well. Strip away the glitz and someone must be able to learn something and apply it to the real world. What has amazed me is the explosion of media types over the past few years…Learners increasingly want content delivered quickly in the most granular fashion possible.

TC: Certainly technology is constantly changing. Tools like search, wikis, blogs, podcasting, and the Web itself are dramatically changing how content is produced. This is true in the e-Learning space as well with several vendors in the last year or so releasing easy-to-use development tools that create high-quality, interactive modules. I am aware of several new releases planned before the end of this year that will allow some incredible development. However, I don’t think the pedagogy or the philosophy has changed. We’re just finally able to begin trying the things we’ve talked about from the beginning.

CE: The learning should be invisible. The industry still makes it too hard to get to learning. LMS systems, training plans, two hour courses... People are busy. They don't have time for the complexity. Learning should be embedded in the workflow. Here is an example: Why should anyone go through an LMS? Why isn't the learning available through Microsoft Outlook in my calendar or task bar?

TC: The more I ponder this topic, I’ve come to wonder if all learning should be a combination of simulation and performance support. We all believe that learning by doing is the best method, yet we still rely on lecture and PowerPoint. I submit for your consideration that if a topic can’t be learned by doing, then it probably doesn’t need to be learned at all. Maybe this is easier to digest with an example. A common training topic is ethics which is most frequently taught either through lecture or a page-turning e-Learning module. When complete, how much of that course is remembered, applied on the job, or even more rarely impacting results? Instead, what if that same course were only taught through role plays or online simulations? Every concept and fact would be based in a practical experience that could be immediately applied. Add performance support for quick references on more infrequent topics and the combination is powerful. We’re finally able to do this today, and it’s exciting to see how much impact it is having on the business.

CE: I think companies have become much more sophisticated over the past few years. Five years ago, companies purchased a library of courses, loaded them onto an LMS and hoped that someone used it. No more. Today, the learning is very targeted to job role and function. And the emphasis is on learning backed by business initiatives.

TC: As industry practitioners, we’re too focused on learning metrics. Learning metrics are a waste of time. There I said it. The only people who care about them are in the learning or human resources departments. If I never see a level 1 assessment again, I’ll be very satisfied. Frankly, business leaders don’t really care about level 2 or 3 either. The only things that matter are the business outcomes. It’s a radical view for some, I know. I recently saw survey results on this topic. Participants were asked “What is your organization experimenting with related to measurement?” The statistically significant write-in answer…“Level 1 assessments.” Which organizations are experimenting with Level 1 assessments??? It’s long overdue that we as an industry started talking to our business leaders, understood their strategy, and created learning that drives that strategy and creates real business results that we can measure.

CE: Complementing the increase in content types are the delivery mechanisms surrounding content. Consumer sentiments are now driving corporate learning. Individuals work daily with Google, YouTube, Myspace, and are demanding the same level of engagement from their corporate training. Trends that build on this include: Search. There will always be a place for formal learning, but our usage statistics support the rapid increase in informal learning. This is why Google is the great liberator/threat to the current learning industry; Social authoring. As I mentioned before, good content is hard to build. Is there a way to harness a community of experts to build a repository that is as strong and economical as Wikipedia?; and Virtual worlds. Putting learners back into the learning equation remains very important. There is a reason why Second Life and Worlds of Warcraft are big business. For too long, people were fascinated with the notion of "computer-based" when in fact it should only be a collaborative mechanism to connect people together.

TC: For the next major change, we’re going “back to the future” for performance support. Performance support is nothing new. Gloria Gery talked about this over 30 years ago. Technology has finally reached a point where we can do something more than just simple, high-maintenance attempts. Tools for self-publishing and search (with appropriate security and reviews) allow content of all types to be stored and easily accessed at a moments notice. The information can be retrieved on innumerable devices and in dozens of formats written only once. Given the power of search, organized storage (folders and files) become irrelevant. Tagging becomes irrelevant, except for context items such as author and date, which reduces the time and cost of content creation. Reduced costs, ease of creation, and ubiquitous access make performance support the next big thing.